A brutally honest framework to validate your AI startup idea before you burn time and money.
Not all AI businesses are created equal. Know where you sit on the defensibility spectrum.
Uses AI as one feature among many. AI enhances but isn't core to the value prop.
Key Metrics: Feature adoption rate, time saved per user
AI is the core product. Without AI, there's no product. But uses commodity models.
Key Metrics: Usage frequency, output quality ratings, retention
AI application with unique data moat. The data makes the AI better than competitors.
Key Metrics: Data volume, data uniqueness, model accuracy vs competitors
Building the underlying AI models that others build on. Extremely capital intensive.
Key Metrics: Benchmark performance, API revenue, enterprise deals
High Risk - Major gaps to address
Check off each question you can confidently answer "yes" to. Be honest with yourself.
Original: GPT-3 wrapper for marketing copy
Pivot: Full marketing AI platform with brand voice, campaigns, and team collaboration
Lesson: Thin wrapper was commoditized, but deep integration with marketing workflows created stickiness.
Original: General AI writing assistant
Pivot: Tried to compete on features with 100+ similar tools
Lesson: Without unique data or distribution, AI writing tools became a race to free.
Original: General creative AI tools
Pivot: Focused exclusively on video generation and editing
Lesson: Specialization and proprietary models in video created defensibility.
Original: AI chatbot platform
Pivot: Focus on entertainment and engagement over utility
Lesson: Found product-market fit in a use case (companionship) that larger models ignored.
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